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Risk Assessment Modelling

Newrisk Limited applies an original risk assessment model developed from original doctorate research work by Newrisk Limited's principal adviser, Dr Leivesley. To return to the overview of the risk assessment services provided by Newrisk Limited, please click here.

The catastrophic risk modelling used by Dr Leivesley was developed from an initial study of over 2,000 incidents in original research. This research provided key dimensions across all disasters and factors which caused a breakdown in critical functions of business and government. In the subsequent years, practical experience with managing disaster recovery units and providing catastrophic risk advice across a variety of industries has broadened the range of factors used in models to assess particular risks.

The catastrophic risk speciality covers all risks across all industries and disciplines where failures in a critical function may cause a total collapse of business processes, government policies and responses, crises from natural disasters, terrorism or major accidents. The health of populations is particularly dependent on catastrophic risk assessment as this discipline protects against mass casualties from disasters such as earthquakes, pandemics, terrorist actions or as a consequence of war.

The advantage of the risk modelling process applied by Newrisk Limited is that human factor failures can be included alongside technology, conflict, terrorism, technological processes and geopolitical inputs. Quantification of risk is an important contribution to business and government policies. Operational plans and the operational risk assessment work by Newrisk Limited's principal adviser, Dr Leivesley, allow stress testing, the exercising of existing procedures, the assessment of the cost effectiveness of any new controls being considered by organisations or governments to reduce the risk of catastrophic loss or otherwise mitigate incidents in real-time.

To request Newrisk Limited's assistance in connection with a risk assessment or to discuss a tailored package of services, please contact Newrisk Limited directly.

 

Sally Leivesley


       DR SALLY LEIVESLEY




          BREAKING NEWS

  • Cyber
  • Nuclear

Prepare for the unexpected. New forms of attack will be unexpected in time, tactics and consequences and may include kinetic attacks on undersea cables and space infrastructure. 

Questions to Consider:
Does the organisation have a capacity to fast switch to other cloud, in-house server or hot site operations to limit recovery time? Are there diagnostics for sensors and control systems and the interface with operations?  Could a global security crisis in the South and East China Seas and flash points elsewhere (including Europe) target an organisation’s upstream cyber providers?  Other resilience tasks to check are:

  • - Competent external recovery services;
  • - Internal policies for real time back- up systems unconnected to live operations;
  • - Financial resources for full re-build after ransomware;
  • - Internal policies to avert ransomware payments; 
  • - Cooperative recovery planning with industry peers;
  • - Regular modular and  whole of organisation exercises;
- Multiple scenario tests for strength of preparedness.

 Nations signalling intent of conflict.
 Energy regeneration challenges.

Nuclear conflict and radiation incidents are a high risk for some regions.  Nations are engaging in
‘signalling’ capability of weapons and intent. The most frequent signals are coming from China in
relation to Taiwan; the USA in relation to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea; Russia in
sending Zircon hypersonic missiles onto naval voyages into the Atlantic, movement of nuclear
weapons to Belarus and threats to Ukraine; North Korea in frequency of missile tests including
submarine launched missiles and drones; and Iran’s apparent nuclear enrichment found to be at
84% purity.

Planning for Energy Regeneration Post Nuclear Conflict:
1. Hardened energy infrastructure;
2. Academic and Industry collaborative Programmes;
3. Small Modular Reactors built underground;
4. Supplemental critical control system separated from IOT; and
5. Energy planning for rail transportation of populations.