Dr Sally Leivesley
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Risk Assessment Modelling

Newrisk Limited applies an original risk assessment model developed from original doctorate research work by Newrisk Limited's principal adviser, Dr Leivesley. To return to the overview of the risk assessment services provided by Newrisk Limited, please click here.

The catastrophic risk modelling used by Dr Leivesley was developed from an initial study of over 2,000 incidents in original research. This research provided key dimensions across all disasters and factors which caused a breakdown in critical functions of business and government. In the subsequent years, practical experience with managing disaster recovery units and providing catastrophic risk advice across a variety of industries has broadened the range of factors used in models to assess particular risks.

The catastrophic risk speciality covers all risks across all industries and disciplines where failures in a critical function may cause a total collapse of business processes, government policies and responses, crises from natural disasters, terrorism or major accidents. The health of populations is particularly dependent on catastrophic risk assessment as this discipline protects against mass casualties from disasters such as earthquakes, pandemics, terrorist actions or as a consequence of war.

The advantage of the risk modelling process applied by Newrisk Limited is that human factor failures can be included alongside technology, conflict, terrorism, technological processes and geopolitical inputs. Quantification of risk is an important contribution to business and government policies. Operational plans and the operational risk assessment work by Newrisk Limited's principal adviser, Dr Leivesley, allow stress testing, the exercising of existing procedures, the assessment of the cost effectiveness of any new controls being considered by organisations or governments to reduce the risk of catastrophic loss or otherwise mitigate incidents in real-time.

To request Newrisk Limited's assistance in connection with a risk assessment or to discuss a tailored package of services, please contact Newrisk Limited directly.


Sally Leivesley



  • TEG7
  • Cyber Threats
In response to the Paris & Brussels attacks, Newrisk Ltd has become part of The Exercise Group7. The TEG7 LLP is a dynamic team drawn from cyber & former special defence fields to exercise organisations & governments on emerging terror threats.  The TEG7 profile can be seen at www.teg7.co.uk.  The level of casualties from shooting attacks (as with the Bataclan (France) in 2015; Brussels airport (Belgium), Ataturk airport (Turkey), Nice beach (France) & Berlin Christmas Market (Germany) in 2016; & La Reina Nightclub (Turkey) in 2017) are the result of military style incursions by terrorists determined to maximise casualties.  Home grown terror threats are increasing in many countries - the New York & New Jersey bombs found in 2016 & the numerous disrupted plots in the UK, Germany & France - indicate serious changes in terror capability which may be made more dynamic as ISIS fighters return to their home countries.

Cyber threats are changing from loss of data & privacy to loss of control of business systems & more seriously reconnaissance attacks on critical infrastructure including energy grids.  The fragility of highly connected systems will become more serious in 2017 with open system dependencies (driven by business innovation).   Degraded capacity operations will become essential if persistent attacks affect critical infrastructure.  Exploiting cyber weaknesses are (i) criminals with ransomware & (ii) nation states aiming to disrupt, deter or signal capability against target countries.  The Ukraine power attacks remain a lesson for critical infrastructure losses.  Aviation remains the industry ‘canary’ for cyber failures & cyber forensics must evolve to close open investigations (as in the case of MH370).